Top 10 One Hit Wonders

I'm back from the dead!  Returning to school was a lot tougher than I thought it would be, and so I haven't been able to update in a (very long) while.  I still can't promise normally-timed updates--that will certainly commence once the season rolls around, however--but I will do my best to get out at least one post per week.  And so, without further rambling, I give you the top ten one-hit wonders.

• Note 1: A "one-hit wonder" is described as a player who had one season that is far greater than all of his other ones.  Two great seasons is a dis-qualifier, as would be one great season and a lot of above average ones.  A good general benchmark was to examine what percentage of a player's career WAR was contained in his best year, though that, of course, is still never an exact science.
• Note 2: All active players are excluded.  Who knows what the future will hold for them?
• Note 3: These are ranked both in terms of how good the season was, and how good it was relative to the rest of their career.  There's no statistical method for this.  Remember, guys: subjective baseball.

1. Bill James, SP, 1914 (BSN): 7.4 WAR/150 ERA+/1.90 ERA

No, this obviously isn't the famous statistician.  Nor is it even "Big Bill" James, a fellow deadball era pitcher.  The Bill James (nicknamed "Seattle Bill") to which this entry refers had himself a heck of a season in 1914.  Pitching for the Boston Braves, James posted a 26-7 record with a 1.90 ERA, and led the league in WAR (7.4) and W-L % (.788), and finished second in ERA (to Bill Doak's 1.72) and wins (Pete Alexander had 27, that dastard).  So... cool.  We've established that James had a good season.  Great, even.  And he was only twenty-two years old at the time!  Clearly he had a bright future in the majors, right?  Not exactly.  His 1915, in which he only started nine games and pitched to a 5-4 record with an ERA+ of 89, was decidedly mediocre. Then World War I hit, though James still managed to play a year of minor league ball for the Portland Beavers in 1917.  In 1919, after the allies had finished off the Central Powers, he was back in the majors... for one game.  And that was it.  James pitched in the minors until 1925, when he retired and lived happily (one hopes) until 1971.  There are a lot of players on this list (nine, in fact) who had a few decent seasons to compliment their great one.  James, however, didn't have that luxury.  For his excellent 1914, and complete lack of other productivity, I am happy to declare Bill James to be the ideal one-hit wonder.

2. Mark Fidrych, SP, 1976 (DET): 8.5 WAR/159 ERA+/19-9
You all know him: he's Mark "The Bird" Fidrych!  As previously discussed in the article on the ten best rookie seasons, Mark Fidrych's 1976 was amazing.  He led the league in ERA (2.34), pitched an astounding 24 complete games, won the Rookie of the Year, finished second in the Cy Young voting, and helped engineer the election of Jimmy Carter (one of these things is untrue).  After that year, however, he fell apart--and it's not hard to understand why.  Here, let me spell it out for you: he pitched 24 complete games in his rookie season.  Impressive?  Yes, very.  But, as we've come to appreciate more recently with Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, early-career dominance can be a double-edged sword, easily derailed by an overeager manager.  That's not to blame Ralph Houk for Fidrych's appearance on this list.  He had an electric ace who people loved to watch, and who won the team a lot of games.  But remember, kids: don't throw 250 innings when you've never pitched in the majors before.

3. Dick Ellsworth, SP, 1963 (CHC): 10.3 WAR/167 ERA+/22-10

In the twelve years of his career that weren't 1963, Dick Ellsworth had a 3.97 ERA (94 ERA+) with a 93-127 record, a K/9 of 4.6, and a WHIP of 1.379.  Not horrible, but certainly below average.  His best WAR during that period was 3.8 in 1961, when he had ten wins and an ERA+ of 109.  Let's now look at what Ellsworth managed to do in 1963: aside from the stats listed above, Ellsworth had a WHIP of 1.025, a K/9 of 5.7, and an ERA of 2.11.  He didn't lead the league in many categories, mostly due to the presence of one Sandy Koufax, but Ellsworth placed in the top five for many stats (WAR-2nd, ERA-2nd, wins-5th, WHIP-4th, CG-3rd, HR/9-4th, and WPA-3rd) and led the league in ERA+.  Ellsworth, he of the mediocre career, was far and away one of the best pitchers in 1963.  He earns the number two spot on this list for his stellar play during his one-hit wonder season, as well as how much better he was in that year than in any other.  (Also, his WAR is tops on this list.  Maybe somebody can explain that stat to me some day so I can understand what that really means.)

4. Dutch Leonard, SP, 1914 (BOS): 7.9 WAR/279 ERA+/19-5

Continuing my fascination with WAR, this just proves how little I understand that stat that I love to use.  Despite having the second-lowest WAR on this list, I still put Leonard #3 (a very good ranking, considering the strong competition).  His 1914 was amazing, whereas the rest of his career was rather pedestrian.  Just how big was the gap?  His next best ERA+, 123, came in his 1913 rookie season.  Out of the ten seasons in which he started at least 15 games, he had an ERA+ over 100 seven times, and an ERA+ over 120 only twice.  So it's clear that his 1914 was far and away his best year, with none of his other years coming close.  Let's now examine that season.  If the 279 ERA+ didn't already tip you off, Leonard was fantastic in 1914.  His WAR was second in the AL, and he led the league in WHIP (.886), ERA (0.96), K/9 (7.05), and, of course, ERA+ (Walter Johnson was second with a mere 164).  Despite never coming close to replicating his numbers, Leonard will forever be remembered (by me, anyway) for his fantastic 1914 season.

5. Marcus Giles, 2B, 2003 (ATL): 8.2 WAR/136 OPS+/.316 AVG

As a Mets fan in the 2000s, Marcus Giles was a constant object of my hatred.  Perhaps that's why I remember him having been very good for a decent amount of time, when in reality he only had one good year.  In 2003, after having been a scrub for the Braves for two years, Giles broke out by being on the NL leaderboard in the following categories: WAR (3rd), AVG (8th), OBP (4th), OPS (9th), doubles (2nd), triples (9th), and OPS+ (7th).  For a young second baseman to do all of this was nothing short of incredible, and it seemed as if Giles would be a major force for many years to come.  Unfortunately for him, his success would be shortlived.  He puttered to an OPS+/WAR of 111/3.0 and 114/3.8 over the next two seasons, which he then followed up by two very bad years with the Braves and Padres in 2006 and 2007.  And then, almost as quickly as he had emerged as a star, he was out of baseball.  Let's examine his numbers, not including that magical 2003 season: .268 AVG, .751 OPS, 95 OPS+, 8.5 WAR.  Also, while Giles was good for a FV of 22 in 2003, he only contributed a total FV of four in the other six years of his career.  While Giles may have never panned out to his potential, he is clearly deserving of a prominent spot on this list.

6. Terry Turner, SS, 1906 (CLE): 8.4 WAR/123 OPS+/.709 OPS

Oh good, another deadball-era player nobody's ever heard of.  We get a lot of those on this site, don't we?  Anyway, Turner played for seventeen mediocre seasons, amassing a career WAR of 30.2 and OPS+ of 89.  I know that there wasn't a lot of offense from 1904-1919, but those numbers are just sad.  In 1906, however, Terry Turner was far from pathetic.  He ranked fourth among all NLers in offensive WAR, as well as first in defensive WAR.  While he didn't dominate the league in any offensive categories, his stats (10th in RBI, 8th in XBH, 9th in RC) were clearly solid, especially for a shortstop not named Honus Wagner.  Terry Turner might not have obviously overwhelmed with his game, especially in the other years of his career, but his 1906 was a splendid aberration.

7. Tommy Harper, 3B, 1970 (MIL): 7.7 WAR/146 OPS+/31 HR

Tommy Harper was mostly known for his speed.  In his career he stole 408 bases (including 73 in 1969 and 54 in 1973), but only hit .257 with 146 home runs and an OPS+ of 101.  He was, by definition, an average player.  In 1970, however, he had his normal speed (38 steals) as well as power (31 home runs) and average (.296 AVG) that never came together in any of his other seasons.  He had career-high numbers in every category (except for stolen bases) in 1970  His 146 OPS+ wasn't huge, but it was sixth in the league (behind three hall of famers and two very good players, no less) which is still pretty good.  Also, his next highest OPS+ was 112 in 1972 and 1973.  Clear improvement, there.  His 7.7 WAR in 1970 stands in stark contrast to the WAR of 17.3 that comprises the other fourteen years of his career.  He loses some points because his peak season wasn't as high as the others on this list, but make no mistake: Tommy Harper is a great example of a one-hit wonder, and is well deserving of a spot on this list.

8. Chris Hoiles, C, 1993 (BAL): 7.2 WAR/162 OPS+/1.001 OPS

Wow, that was a good season.  I had heard of Hoiles, but when I saw his WAR I assumed it was due to defense (I don't know why).  As it turns out, it was because he tore it up in 1993.  His offensive WAR was 6th in the AL, sandwiched between Rafael Palmeiro and Juan Gonzalez (among others).  His OPS was filthy, and he placed in the top five for both OBP and SLG, a nice feat.  He doesn't rank in the top ten in many other categories, but regardless of rankings his numbers can still be appreciated as quite good: .310 AVG, 29 HR, 82 RBI (and all in just 126 games, due to being a catcher).  Hoiles was rewarded with a $1.65M jump in salary from 1993 to 1994, but the Orioles' faith was not rewarded.  While Hoiles was serviceable in his nine other seasons (some complete, some not), he never recaptured the glory of 1993.  His next-highest WAR is 3.5, and in that year he hit .250 with 19 HR and an OPS+ of 114--clearly a step down from his 1993.  A one-hit wonder, indeed.

9. Justin Thompson, SP, 1997 (DET): 7.2 WAR/152 ERA+/15-11
Thompson is a very interesting case of who should and shouldn't qualify for this list.  On one hand, he earns his place here due to his arm basically falling apart the year after he tore up the league with his pitching.  Yet, on the other hand, I can't give him a pass due to misfortune, mostly owing to the fact that his non-1997, pre-injury years were just not that good.  His 1997, though, was truly great: his W-L record might be underwhelming, but he was in the top five for many pitching categories that actually matter (WAR, 4th; ERA, 5th; WHIP, 4th; ERA+, 5th).  As for the rest of his career?  He was a very mediocre pitcher in 1996, 1998, and 1999 (combined WAR: 5) and then resurfaced in 2005 to make two relief appearances for the Rangers.  His 1997 WAR is 60% of his career WAR (12), an impressive feat that gives him good cred for this list.  No, his case isn't overwhelming, but that's partly due to the competition falls off after the top six.  That, however, shouldn't take away from Thompson's stellar 1997, and how good it is when compared to the rest of his muddled career.

10. Irv Young, SP, 1905 (BSN): 7.0 WAR/106 ERA+/20-21
"Okay," you might say, "in 1905 Young lost more games than he won and had a very underwhelming ERA+.  His WAR might have been third in the league, but so what?  That doesn't mean anything if he doesn't have the stats to prove it."  Well, friend, have I got a rebuttal for you!  He started 42 games and completed 41 of them.    Yeah, wow.  In addition to that accomplishment, he finished fifth in strikeouts, second in shutouts, sixth in WHIP, and third in K/BB.  And that 7.0 WAR looks a lot better when compared to the -1.3 WAR he amassed over other five years of his career.  His ERA statistics may not be impressive, but his other numbers are filthy enough to land Young the tenth and final spot on this list.

Ten Best Rookie Seasons

In honor of the new year, today I will examine the best rookie seasons of all-time, dating back to 1901.

• Note 1: The player must have qualified for either a batting or ERA title in his rookie year to appear on this list.
• Note 2 (UPDATED): I had originally only included players who hadn't played at all before their rookie seasons.  Then I decided to not be so lazy, and thus the new and improved post includes players for whom their rookie season was not their first shot at the bigs.  The old entries are preserved, however, making this technically a top twelve list.  Thanks to Mike and "anonymous" in the comments, for inspiring me to go through with this. 
• Note 3: I've been trying out giving all pitchers a uniform heading line of WAR/ERA+/W-L and hitters WAR/OPS+/FV (though FV will be replaced another stat for today).  I may play around with this, as I don't know how much I love WAR yet, so don't get mad if I seem inconsistent with my "important" statistics.

1. Vean Gregg, SP, 1911 (CLE): 7.8 WAR/189 ERA+/23-7
Here are Vean Gregg's standings among rookies, all-time: ERA+, 2nd; ERA, 3rd; WHIP, 3rd; wins, 3rd; and shutouts, 4th.  No, he doesn't lead in any of those categories, but find me another rookie pitcher who can claim top-four status in all of those categories.  What Gregg do, however, was establish himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball in 1911, leading the American League in ERA, WHIP, and H/9.  He only finished tenth in MVP voting for that year, but performed markedly better than some of the players who came ahead of him.  Gregg continued his dominance for the next two seasons, and then fell off.  His WAR over his first three seasons: 18.3; over his next (and final) five: 0.9.  It's not a wonder that Gregg isn't talked about as one of the all-time greats.  His career simply wasn't there.  His rookie season, however, seems to be criminally underrated.  For a very small amount of time he was one of the best pitchers in the game--a period set up by his brilliant rookie season, the best of all-time of its kind.

2. Ichiro Suzuki, RF, 2001 (SEA): 7.6 WAR/126 OPS+/242 H
Ichiro probably didn't deserve the MVP award that he received for this season, but his dominance over the AL cannot be understated.  In an era dominated by power hitting (you may remember that Barry Bonds hit his 73 home runs in 2001), Ichiro's brand of play was a breath of fresh air.  He was fast (leading the AL in stolen bases with 56), could hit (led the AL in hits, as well as batting average [.350]), and was a flashy defender (fourth in the AL with a fielding value of 27).  His game wasn't that balanced--he only hit eight home runs with sixty-nine RBI--but that didn't matter when he was getting on base more than anybody else in the league.  His contribution to his team, which had just traded away Ken Griffey, Jr. for a pretty uninspiring bunch of talent, was astounding.  As a rookie, albeit one with prior experience in Japan, he carried the Mariners through their outstanding 116 win season and made them forget all about the last star outfielder from Seattle.  Simply amazing.

3. Ted Williams, LF, 1939 (BOS): 6.8 WAR/160 OPS+/145 RBI
While Williams only ranks eighth among rookies in WAR, I give him the number three spot here for a few reasons: I know RBI is a statistic much dependent on the hitters in front of you getting on base, but it clearly takes more than a little skill to consistently drive them in all season.  Williams didn't just do that well in 1939, he did it better than anybody else in the American League.  The second-place hitter in that category, none other than Joe DiMaggio, only had 126.  (Williams also led the league in total bases, with 344.)  His OPS+ of 160 is second-highest all-time among rookie position players, but he had more eleven more home runs, fifty two more runs batted in, and forty nine more hits than Johnny Mize (who had an OPS+ of 162 in his rookie year).  Williams leads all rookies (all-time) with an OBP of .436, an OPS of 1.045, and led all left-fielders in WAR in 1939.  In his first season in the majors, only two years before he would hit .406, the Splendid Splinter had already established himself as one of the finest all-around players in the major leagues.  For doing that, I'm happy to give him the number three spot on this list.

4. Albert Pujols, 3B, 2001 (STL): 6.9 WAR/157 OPS+/37 HR
While the dynamic Ichiro was taking the American League by storm, a young, mostly unknown Hispanic third baseman named Albert Pujols was destroying the National League.  What Pujols accomplished was nothing short of spectacular.  As you might be able to tell, the difference between Ted Williams' and Pujols' seasons is mostly negligible.  I gave the tie to Williams because of his slightly higher OPS+ and greater dominance on a statistic-by-statistic basis relative to the other hitters in the league at the time.  Still, Pujols' 2001 is clearly one of the all-time great rookie seasons.  He hit for power, average (.329 AVG, 194 hits), and his slugging percentage of .610 is an all-time rookie high.  His durability was admirable too, as he played in 161 games, making him one of only four rookies ever to play in 160 or more games.  For his 2001, Pujols was fairly rewarded with the Rookie of the Year, an All-Star appearance, a Silver Slugger, and a fourth place finish in the MVP voting. Fourth may seem too low (as in, closer to 10th) for this season; but that just speaks to the competition he has from Gregg, Ichiro, and Williams, rather than the quality of Pujols' 2001.

5. Mark Fidrych, SP, 1976 (DET): 8.5 WAR/159 ERA+/19-9

Man, what more can be said about Mark "The Bird" Fidrych's rookie season?  He charmed the MLB with his odd antics (e.g. he would talk to the ball while on the mound), but unlike some of the other most colorful characters baseball has seen, Fidrych could flat-out play.  (His nationally televised game against the Yankees is still shown on MLB Network.)  He led the MLB in WAR, ERA (2.34), and complete games (an astounding 24 out of just 29 starts).  He didn't strike out very many batters, but made up for it by having a WHIP of only 1.079, third in the AL.  Fidrych ran away with the Rookie of the Year and finished second in the Cy Young voting to Jim Palmer.  Although Fidrych's career would soon take a disastrous and injury-filled turn, the magic of his rookie season still inspires years later.

6. Fred Lynn, CF, 1975 (BOS): 6.1 WAR/161 OPS+/.331 AVG
In 1975, Fred Lynn won Rookie of the Year, Most Valuable Player, a Gold Glove, and was an All-Star.  There was a reason for this: he was basically unstoppable.  Lynn, as a mere 23 year-old, helped lead the Red Sox to an ill-fated World Series appearance by doing basically all that he could.  He led the AL in runs, doubles, slugging percentage, and OPS, and finished second in batting average and extra base hits.  He even finished in the top ten for defensive WAR.  No, I don't think that Lynn--despite a slightly higher OPS+--had a better season than Ichiro, Williams, or Pujols.  His OPS, home runs, and RBIs are inferior to those of the other two power hitters, and he clearly didn't hit or run as well as Ichiro did.  Lynn definitely deserved all the accolades he collected during his historic 1975 season.  In the scheme of rookie seasons, however, I believe he's right at home in 6th place.

7. Dick Allen, 1B, 1964 (PHI): 9.1 WAR/162 OPS+/29 HR
I don't understand how WAR is calculated.  I'm sure it's a good system, as I trust it enough to use it here, but I don't see how Allen's 1964 has been deemed to be worth two more wins than either Williams' or Pujols' aforementioned seasons.  In any case, while I don't think Allen had as good of a season as either of those two all-time greats, he certainly put up impressive numbers in 1964.  His 29 home runs, 201 hits, and .939 OPS are daunting, and any player would kill to be able to have that line.  My main problem with Allen's 1964 is that he didn't lead the league in any categories besides WAR, runs, triples, and strikeouts.  To my untrained eye, Willie Mays and Ron Santo actually had better seasons (something borne out by the OPS of each).  Allen in 1964 established himself as an all-around threat and hitting machine, but I don't think he did better than any of the players ahead of him on this list.  (Not that there's any shame in that.)

8. Ed Reulbach, SP, 1905 (CHC): 7.8 WAR/209 ERA+/18-14
Reulbach pitched in the middle of the Dead Ball Era, but unlike Vean Gregg was not far and away the best pitcher in baseball during his rookie season (that honor would go to Christy Mathewson).  His statistics are impressive, to be sure: an ERA of 1.42; 28 complete games; a WHIP of 0.963; and a paltry 6.4 H/9 (the only major category in which he led the league).  eulbach, despite not having as good rookie seasons as Gregg or Fidrych, went on to have a long and prosperous career, winning 182 games with a career ERA+ of 123.  The presence of Mathewson, and the general dominance of pitching in his era, means that I can't move him higher than this (though finishing sixth on this list is still pretty nice).

9. Reb Russell, SP, 1913 (CHW): 7.3 WAR/154 ERA+/22-16
Oh look, another Dead Ball Era pitcher whom nobody's ever heard of!  That's not quite fair, as I'm sure there are a few people out there who know Russell for his nickname.  While he didn't have much of a career of which to speak, his rookie season was plenty good.  He pitched eight shutouts, a rookie record, and his WHIP of 1.039 is second among rookies.  His ERA was 1.90, tied for third in the AL, and his 26 complete games was second.  Like Reulbach, Russell suffers from the strong pitching competition he had that year (Walter Johnson had a 1.14 ERA with an unreal WHIP of .780).  His durability (he led the league in games pitched, with 52; maybe he suffered from Mark Prior syndrome before we knew of such a thing?) and dominance, however, ensure that his rookie season will still be remembered as one of the all-time greats.

10. Pete Alexander, SP, 1911 (PHI): 7.8 WAR/133 ERA+/28-13

"Wait, not another one?" you may thing.  Well, you may know this pitcher better by the name Grover Cleveland Alexander.  Unlike the other pitchers on this list, his rookie year was no aberration.  In 1911, Alexander led the NL in wins, complete games, shutouts, innings pitched, and H/9.  The reason why he's not higher is that none of those statistics are particularly compelling.  His ERA, 2.57, is solid but not outstanding, as is his WHIP (1.128).  This season is notable in that it heralded the arrival of one of baseball's great pitchers, and showed just how good he could be.  Alexander would lead the league in wins five more times before his career was over, finishing with 373.  It was his first, however, that would prove to be his most recognized, as he finished higher (3rd place) in the MVP vote that year than in any other season.

*NOTE: The players below would otherwise be on my "runners-up" list, but I decided to preserve what I wrote about them.*

11. Dale Alexander, 1B, 1929 (DET): 4.8 WAR/147 OPS+/215 H
Not to be confused with the similarly-named pitcher on this list, Alexander's WAR can be deceiving (he had an offensive WAR of 5.5, but it got knocked down .7 points for bad defense).  Alexander led the league in hits (215) while also finishing in the top five in many other categories (home runs, 25; slugging, .580; extra base hits, 83; and runs created, 141).  He was an offensive machine with a good all-around game.  To be fair, however, he played during an incredible period of offense, and so his .343 average was only tenth in the AL.  Still, though, his great statistics should be acknowledged (and indeed, his OPS+ bears out that he was a much above-average hitter in 1911; being in the top ten in almost every offensive category as a rookie is no easy accomplishment).  I'll do that by giving him a spot on this ranking.

12. Paul Waner, RF, 1926 (PIT): 5.7 WAR/147 OPS+/.336 AVG

Remember Lloyd Waner, from yesterday's list?  Paul was his more talented brother.  Before winning MVP in 1927, Paul put up quite the impressive rookie season.  He hit .336 with an OPS of .941, and led the league in triples, with 22.  His WAR was third in the league, and first among position players.  It's actually worse, I think, that Waner went on to have such a great career.  This season is one of his more middling ones, so it doesn't stand out as much as, say, Fidrych's does.  But while that might be an interesting thought experiment, it doesn't detract from the quality and dominance of Waner's 1926.  He just had an all-around very good season, finishing 12th in the MVP voting for it, and for that he gets a spot on this list.

Runners-up: ; Curt Davis, SP, 1934 (PHI); Johnny Mize, 1B, 1936 (STL); Mike Piazza, C, 1993 (LAD); Frank Robinson, LF, 1956 (CIN)