Showing posts with label Fred Lynn. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fred Lynn. Show all posts

Thursday, May 30, 2013

Top 10 Seasons by Players Not in the Hall of Fame

Sorry for the lengthy title, but I couldn't find any other way to describe this list.  A few qualifiers:
  • Players still eligible for the Hall of Fame aren't eligible for this list.  So no Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens.
  • Also, I won't count players who would get into the Hall but for their ethical indiscretions (sorry, Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson).
  • One season per person.
  • This is a little similar to another list I did a while back, but I figured that they were different enough that this one warrants its own article.  To remedy any potential issues I've also exempted everybody on that list from this one.

1. Dwight Gooden, SP, 1985 (NYM): 12.1 bWAR/229 ERA+/268 K
The complicated story of Dr. K is well-known among baseball (especially Mets) fans, something I already partially covered here.  Today, though, we'll just reflect on one of the greatest pitching seasons of all-time: Gooden's 1985.  Only twenty years old, Gooden mowed through the National League in a way basically unseen since (some seasons by Pedro Martinez and Roger Clemens notwithstanding).  His 1.53 ERA is larger than only Bob Gibson's 1968 in the seasons since the "Year of the Pitcher."  His 16 complete games were amazing for a pitcher in the 1980s.  His 268 strikeouts, while not great compared to, say, what Nolan Ryan was doing, is still an incredible figure.  Really, Gooden was crazily dominant in a way that made everybody think that he would be the best pitcher on earth for many years to come.  That didn't happen, but that doesn't detract at all from what he did in 1985.

2. Norm Cash, 1B, 1961 (DET): 9.2 bWAR/201 OPS+/178 RC
Perhaps most impressive about Cash's season isn't the 41 home runs (6th in the league), his .662 slugging percentage (2nd, to Mickey Mantle), or his .361 batting average (1st), but rather his .487 OBP (1st).  For that, Cash combined the second-most walks in the league with the most hits, a surefire way to have a very productive season.  Cash may have somewhat of an unfair reputation as a hacker, a power hitter who could rack up the strikeouts, and while Cash consistently struck out around 70 times person season in his career he always had pretty good plate discipline.  It all came together for Cash in 1961 and, but for Mantle and Maris, we might remember 1961 as the Year of Cash.  Perhaps we should do so anyway.

3. Al Rosen, 3B, 1953 (CLE): 10.1 bWAR/180 OPS+/151 RC
Unlike some of the other names on this list, Rosen was properly rewarded for his great season with the appropriate hardware; however, his name lives on perhaps worse than any non-dead ball era player on this list.  After winning the 1953 MVP with some truly gaudy offensive numbers--he was .001 in batting average away from winning the triple crown--Rosen quickly faded from baseball, though his 1954 was still pretty good.  No matter his historical record, Rosen's 1953 was one of the most dominant seasons by any player.  His WAR was 4.2 points higher than the next-best position player and he was in the top-two of seemingly every hitting category.  Too bad he didn't stick around for the longhaul; his bad back and legs denied us a perhaps future Hall of Famer.

4. Luis Tiant, SP, 1968 (CLE): 8.4 bWAR/186 ERA+/0.871 WHIP
Tiant is beloved in Boston for his antics during his playing and, more recently, announcing time for the Red Sox, but he really shined during his late-1960s time in Cleveland.  Though he had many good seasons from which to choose, Tiant's 1968 was probably his best.  He led the league in shutouts (9) and ERA+.  Very impressively, his WHIP was miniscule, tied for the 16th lowest per-season number for any starting pitcher since 1901.  Tiant gave the Indians great control and many innings, and was almost certainly the best pitcher in the league in 1968, Denny McLain's 30 wins be damned.

5. Ron Guidry, SP, 1978 (NYY): 9.6 bWAR/208 ERA+/.946 WHIP
Louisiana Lightning lit up the league in 1978, leading the league in many important categories, earning a well-deserved Cy Young Award in the process.  He struck out a ton of batters (248, with a 8.17 K/9) and kept basically everybody off base.  9 shutouts was a big deal even in 1978, as was his 1.74 ERA.  He probably would have accrued a higher WAR with more innings, but that's of little concern.  In almost every metric of importance Guidry was the best pitcher in 1978, one of the great modern pitching seasons.

6. Wilbur Wood, SP, 1971 (CHW): 11.7 bWAR/189 ERA+/22-13
Speaking of expansion era workhorses who gave it all to their teams, we have Wilbur Wood in Chicago!  In 1971, Wood pitched an ungodly 334 innings (which was actually his third highest total for the string of three seasons starting with 1971), though unlike in his other high-inning years Wood was able to dominate the rest of the league.  He struck out 210 batters and led the league in ERA+, while his 1.000 WHIP was and still is perfectly acceptable by ace standards.  Wood was one of the last throwback starters who could comfortable start over 40 games in a season; he just happened to be better at it than almost anybody else.

7. Russ Ford, SP, 1910 (NYY): 11.0 bWAR/160 ERA+/0.881 WHIP
It's tough to measure players from the Dead Ball era, but that's why we have modern rate stats, right?  Ford's 1910 was actually his rookie season.  (Why wasn't he in my article about rookie seasons?  I dunno, probably because he did pitch in 1909, though only once.)  Anyway, in 1910 Ford predictably doesn't stack up great on raw stats (the 10th place ERA was 1.91, for god's sake!) but some of his statistics are still pretty impressive: the ERA+ (4th place); WHIP (2nd); strikeouts (209, 4th); and shutouts (8, 2nd).  His numbers don't jump out as awesome, considering many other pitchers were doing some variation of what he was doing, but almost nobody else was doing it so well spread out.

8. Fred Lynn, CF, 1979 (BOS): 8.9 bWAR/176 OPS+/147 RC
Lynn earns plaudits for his unreal rookie season (1975), but it was his 1979 that was really his best year.  He led the league in AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS (duh), and OPS+, while he put up great numbers in many counting stats (including WAR, in which he led the American League).  I'm not really sure how he didn't win MVP that year, especially since the player who did win was the thoroughly undeserving Don Baylor (hmm, that's an idea for an article...), but Lynn's career is still remembered fondly, especially by Red Sox fans.

9. Jim Gentile, 1B, 1961 (BAL): 6.9 bWAR/187 OPS+/138 RC
Jim Gentile was a victim of Norm Cash's success.  How?  In 1961, when Gentile tore up the league with his gaudy stats, his WAR was doomed to be low because Cash was doing basically everything Gentile was doing, just a little better.  (Oddly enough, the MVP voters gave more votes to Gentile than to Cash, proving that they were just as fickle in 1961 as they sometimes are today.  Okay, fine, this is almost certainly due to Gentile hitting five more home runs than Cash.)  Anyway, Gentile was a great Three True Outcomes player in 1961, something that led him to be one of the most productive hitters in the 1961 that we all know was already stacked with Mantle, Maris, and Cash.  Fun fact: he led the American League with 141 runs batted in, tied with Maris.

10. Rico Petrocelli, SS, 1969 (BOS): 10.0 bWAR/168 OPS+/129 RC
Honestly, at this point it's kind of hard to distinguish among the many seasons had by non-Hall of Famers.  Some are probably more deserving than Petrocelli, but I'm tickled by his high WAR and the fact that I've never heard of him.  Even still, Petrocelli quietly had a great season in 1969, hanging with Reggie Jackson and Harmon Killebrew in many top stats.  I'm not sure he led the league in anything, but his impressive hitting performance, combined with a very strong fielding year (2.7 defensive WAR, 5th in the league) made him one of the better players in 1969.  He managed to get 7th place in the MVP voting that year, impressive considering many of the metrics used to declare him a good player weren't really yet invented or publicized that much.

Runners-up: Dick Allen, 1B, 1972 (CHW); Babe Herman, RF, 1930 (BRO); Bret Saberhagen, SP, 1989 (KC); Mike Scott, SP, 1986 (HOU).

Sunday, January 2, 2011

Ten Best Rookie Seasons

In honor of the new year, today I will examine the best rookie seasons of all-time, dating back to 1901.
  • Note 1: The player must have qualified for either a batting or ERA title in his rookie year to appear on this list.
  • Note 2 (UPDATED): I had originally only included players who hadn't played at all before their rookie seasons.  Then I decided to not be so lazy, and thus the new and improved post includes players for whom their rookie season was not their first shot at the bigs.  The old entries are preserved, however, making this technically a top twelve list.  Thanks to Mike and "anonymous" in the comments, for inspiring me to go through with this. 
  • Note 3: I've been trying out giving all pitchers a uniform heading line of WAR/ERA+/W-L and hitters WAR/OPS+/FV (though FV will be replaced another stat for today).  I may play around with this, as I don't know how much I love WAR yet, so don't get mad if I seem inconsistent with my "important" statistics.

1. Vean Gregg, SP, 1911 (CLE): 7.8 WAR/189 ERA+/23-7
Here are Vean Gregg's standings among rookies, all-time: ERA+, 2nd; ERA, 3rd; WHIP, 3rd; wins, 3rd; and shutouts, 4th.  No, he doesn't lead in any of those categories, but find me another rookie pitcher who can claim top-four status in all of those categories.  What Gregg do, however, was establish himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball in 1911, leading the American League in ERA, WHIP, and H/9.  He only finished tenth in MVP voting for that year, but performed markedly better than some of the players who came ahead of him.  Gregg continued his dominance for the next two seasons, and then fell off.  His WAR over his first three seasons: 18.3; over his next (and final) five: 0.9.  It's not a wonder that Gregg isn't talked about as one of the all-time greats.  His career simply wasn't there.  His rookie season, however, seems to be criminally underrated.  For a very small amount of time he was one of the best pitchers in the game--a period set up by his brilliant rookie season, the best of all-time of its kind.

2. Ichiro Suzuki, RF, 2001 (SEA): 7.6 WAR/126 OPS+/242 H
Ichiro probably didn't deserve the MVP award that he received for this season, but his dominance over the AL cannot be understated.  In an era dominated by power hitting (you may remember that Barry Bonds hit his 73 home runs in 2001), Ichiro's brand of play was a breath of fresh air.  He was fast (leading the AL in stolen bases with 56), could hit (led the AL in hits, as well as batting average [.350]), and was a flashy defender (fourth in the AL with a fielding value of 27).  His game wasn't that balanced--he only hit eight home runs with sixty-nine RBI--but that didn't matter when he was getting on base more than anybody else in the league.  His contribution to his team, which had just traded away Ken Griffey, Jr. for a pretty uninspiring bunch of talent, was astounding.  As a rookie, albeit one with prior experience in Japan, he carried the Mariners through their outstanding 116 win season and made them forget all about the last star outfielder from Seattle.  Simply amazing.

3. Ted Williams, LF, 1939 (BOS): 6.8 WAR/160 OPS+/145 RBI
While Williams only ranks eighth among rookies in WAR, I give him the number three spot here for a few reasons: I know RBI is a statistic much dependent on the hitters in front of you getting on base, but it clearly takes more than a little skill to consistently drive them in all season.  Williams didn't just do that well in 1939, he did it better than anybody else in the American League.  The second-place hitter in that category, none other than Joe DiMaggio, only had 126.  (Williams also led the league in total bases, with 344.)  His OPS+ of 160 is second-highest all-time among rookie position players, but he had more eleven more home runs, fifty two more runs batted in, and forty nine more hits than Johnny Mize (who had an OPS+ of 162 in his rookie year).  Williams leads all rookies (all-time) with an OBP of .436, an OPS of 1.045, and led all left-fielders in WAR in 1939.  In his first season in the majors, only two years before he would hit .406, the Splendid Splinter had already established himself as one of the finest all-around players in the major leagues.  For doing that, I'm happy to give him the number three spot on this list.

4. Albert Pujols, 3B, 2001 (STL): 6.9 WAR/157 OPS+/37 HR
While the dynamic Ichiro was taking the American League by storm, a young, mostly unknown Hispanic third baseman named Albert Pujols was destroying the National League.  What Pujols accomplished was nothing short of spectacular.  As you might be able to tell, the difference between Ted Williams' and Pujols' seasons is mostly negligible.  I gave the tie to Williams because of his slightly higher OPS+ and greater dominance on a statistic-by-statistic basis relative to the other hitters in the league at the time.  Still, Pujols' 2001 is clearly one of the all-time great rookie seasons.  He hit for power, average (.329 AVG, 194 hits), and his slugging percentage of .610 is an all-time rookie high.  His durability was admirable too, as he played in 161 games, making him one of only four rookies ever to play in 160 or more games.  For his 2001, Pujols was fairly rewarded with the Rookie of the Year, an All-Star appearance, a Silver Slugger, and a fourth place finish in the MVP voting. Fourth may seem too low (as in, closer to 10th) for this season; but that just speaks to the competition he has from Gregg, Ichiro, and Williams, rather than the quality of Pujols' 2001.

5. Mark Fidrych, SP, 1976 (DET): 8.5 WAR/159 ERA+/19-9
Man, what more can be said about Mark "The Bird" Fidrych's rookie season?  He charmed the MLB with his odd antics (e.g. he would talk to the ball while on the mound), but unlike some of the other most colorful characters baseball has seen, Fidrych could flat-out play.  (His nationally televised game against the Yankees is still shown on MLB Network.)  He led the MLB in WAR, ERA (2.34), and complete games (an astounding 24 out of just 29 starts).  He didn't strike out very many batters, but made up for it by having a WHIP of only 1.079, third in the AL.  Fidrych ran away with the Rookie of the Year and finished second in the Cy Young voting to Jim Palmer.  Although Fidrych's career would soon take a disastrous and injury-filled turn, the magic of his rookie season still inspires years later.

6. Fred Lynn, CF, 1975 (BOS): 6.1 WAR/161 OPS+/.331 AVG
In 1975, Fred Lynn won Rookie of the Year, Most Valuable Player, a Gold Glove, and was an All-Star.  There was a reason for this: he was basically unstoppable.  Lynn, as a mere 23 year-old, helped lead the Red Sox to an ill-fated World Series appearance by doing basically all that he could.  He led the AL in runs, doubles, slugging percentage, and OPS, and finished second in batting average and extra base hits.  He even finished in the top ten for defensive WAR.  No, I don't think that Lynn--despite a slightly higher OPS+--had a better season than Ichiro, Williams, or Pujols.  His OPS, home runs, and RBIs are inferior to those of the other two power hitters, and he clearly didn't hit or run as well as Ichiro did.  Lynn definitely deserved all the accolades he collected during his historic 1975 season.  In the scheme of rookie seasons, however, I believe he's right at home in 6th place.

7. Dick Allen, 1B, 1964 (PHI): 9.1 WAR/162 OPS+/29 HR
I don't understand how WAR is calculated.  I'm sure it's a good system, as I trust it enough to use it here, but I don't see how Allen's 1964 has been deemed to be worth two more wins than either Williams' or Pujols' aforementioned seasons.  In any case, while I don't think Allen had as good of a season as either of those two all-time greats, he certainly put up impressive numbers in 1964.  His 29 home runs, 201 hits, and .939 OPS are daunting, and any player would kill to be able to have that line.  My main problem with Allen's 1964 is that he didn't lead the league in any categories besides WAR, runs, triples, and strikeouts.  To my untrained eye, Willie Mays and Ron Santo actually had better seasons (something borne out by the OPS of each).  Allen in 1964 established himself as an all-around threat and hitting machine, but I don't think he did better than any of the players ahead of him on this list.  (Not that there's any shame in that.)

8. Ed Reulbach, SP, 1905 (CHC): 7.8 WAR/209 ERA+/18-14
Reulbach pitched in the middle of the Dead Ball Era, but unlike Vean Gregg was not far and away the best pitcher in baseball during his rookie season (that honor would go to Christy Mathewson).  His statistics are impressive, to be sure: an ERA of 1.42; 28 complete games; a WHIP of 0.963; and a paltry 6.4 H/9 (the only major category in which he led the league).  eulbach, despite not having as good rookie seasons as Gregg or Fidrych, went on to have a long and prosperous career, winning 182 games with a career ERA+ of 123.  The presence of Mathewson, and the general dominance of pitching in his era, means that I can't move him higher than this (though finishing sixth on this list is still pretty nice).

9. Reb Russell, SP, 1913 (CHW): 7.3 WAR/154 ERA+/22-16
Oh look, another Dead Ball Era pitcher whom nobody's ever heard of!  That's not quite fair, as I'm sure there are a few people out there who know Russell for his nickname.  While he didn't have much of a career of which to speak, his rookie season was plenty good.  He pitched eight shutouts, a rookie record, and his WHIP of 1.039 is second among rookies.  His ERA was 1.90, tied for third in the AL, and his 26 complete games was second.  Like Reulbach, Russell suffers from the strong pitching competition he had that year (Walter Johnson had a 1.14 ERA with an unreal WHIP of .780).  His durability (he led the league in games pitched, with 52; maybe he suffered from Mark Prior syndrome before we knew of such a thing?) and dominance, however, ensure that his rookie season will still be remembered as one of the all-time greats.

10. Pete Alexander, SP, 1911 (PHI): 7.8 WAR/133 ERA+/28-13
"Wait, not another one?" you may thing.  Well, you may know this pitcher better by the name Grover Cleveland Alexander.  Unlike the other pitchers on this list, his rookie year was no aberration.  In 1911, Alexander led the NL in wins, complete games, shutouts, innings pitched, and H/9.  The reason why he's not higher is that none of those statistics are particularly compelling.  His ERA, 2.57, is solid but not outstanding, as is his WHIP (1.128).  This season is notable in that it heralded the arrival of one of baseball's great pitchers, and showed just how good he could be.  Alexander would lead the league in wins five more times before his career was over, finishing with 373.  It was his first, however, that would prove to be his most recognized, as he finished higher (3rd place) in the MVP vote that year than in any other season.

*NOTE: The players below would otherwise be on my "runners-up" list, but I decided to preserve what I wrote about them.*

11. Dale Alexander, 1B, 1929 (DET): 4.8 WAR/147 OPS+/215 H
Not to be confused with the similarly-named pitcher on this list, Alexander's WAR can be deceiving (he had an offensive WAR of 5.5, but it got knocked down .7 points for bad defense).  Alexander led the league in hits (215) while also finishing in the top five in many other categories (home runs, 25; slugging, .580; extra base hits, 83; and runs created, 141).  He was an offensive machine with a good all-around game.  To be fair, however, he played during an incredible period of offense, and so his .343 average was only tenth in the AL.  Still, though, his great statistics should be acknowledged (and indeed, his OPS+ bears out that he was a much above-average hitter in 1911; being in the top ten in almost every offensive category as a rookie is no easy accomplishment).  I'll do that by giving him a spot on this ranking.

12. Paul Waner, RF, 1926 (PIT): 5.7 WAR/147 OPS+/.336 AVG
Remember Lloyd Waner, from yesterday's list?  Paul was his more talented brother.  Before winning MVP in 1927, Paul put up quite the impressive rookie season.  He hit .336 with an OPS of .941, and led the league in triples, with 22.  His WAR was third in the league, and first among position players.  It's actually worse, I think, that Waner went on to have such a great career.  This season is one of his more middling ones, so it doesn't stand out as much as, say, Fidrych's does.  But while that might be an interesting thought experiment, it doesn't detract from the quality and dominance of Waner's 1926.  He just had an all-around very good season, finishing 12th in the MVP voting for it, and for that he gets a spot on this list.

Runners-up: ; Curt Davis, SP, 1934 (PHI); Johnny Mize, 1B, 1936 (STL); Mike Piazza, C, 1993 (LAD); Frank Robinson, LF, 1956 (CIN)